Has Hurricane Helene changed the course of the US election?

Words by Angus Neale
At the end of September, Hurricane Helene brought devastation as it ripped across Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee and Virginia. With a total of 230 people killed in the destruction, Helene was the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland US since Katrina in 2005.
President Biden warned that Hurricane Milton could be “the storm of the century” before it made landfall in Florida. Milton was not as deadly as feared, but still killed eight Floridians and left more than three million homes and businesses without power.
These storms, like Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Charley in 2004, Katrina in 2005 and Sandy in 2012, bring disaster relief into the realm of politics.
Americans turn to local and federal government for decisive leadership and to provide emergency support and rebuild. In an election year, these responses come under even closer scrutiny.
Hurricane Helene has not deterred voters, with record early voting in North Carolina and Georgia, two states that may be pivotal for the presidency.
But has the storm had an impact on who will be elected?
Which swing states were hit by Hurricane Helene?
The electoral college system means that some states are more important for the outcome of the election. Hurricanes Helene and Milton tore through a number of these areas.
Georgia was Biden’s closest win in 2020. He took the state and its 16 electoral college votes by a mere 11,779 votes or a 0.24% margin. North Carolina was former President Donald Trump’s narrowest victory, with 74,483 votes in it or 1.35%.
These states might be vital for Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris.
In 2020 Trump got 235 Electoral College votes, leaving him 35 short of victory. If Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state in the North East, goes his way, he would gain 19 more votes putting him on 254.
At this point, he would need to win two more states to secure victory in all but one scenario. Georgia is worth a massive 16 votes which, along with Pennsylvania, puts Trump on the all-important 270.
On the other hand, losing North Carolina could derail Trump’s run for office. If Harris loses Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, she would likely need the state.
The idea that North Carolina is a swing state is something new. Obama won in 2008 by only 14,000 votes, making it the first time the state went blue in 40 years. But more diverse and educated voters have moved into its cities, turning North Carolina from red to purple.
Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News. Direct to your inbox every Friday morning.
Polls are tight but trending towards a small Trump lead, though this is within the margin of error.
Finally, there is Florida, notorious for the 2000 election where the presidency came down to 537 votes and a long battle in the courts. But Trump grew his margin in 2020 reflecting a rightward shift.
How do you run an election after a hurricane?
Running an election after the widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure is a challenge. Voters have been displaced and polling places damaged.
There was also concern that mail-in ballots might have been destroyed.
In Georgia, a lawsuit was filed by the NAACP, the Georgia Coalition for the People’s Agenda and the New Georgia Project which argued that damage and disruptions from Helene unfairly deprived people of the opportunity to register.
All three groups said they had to cancel voter registration after the hurricane tore through the southeast. The groups claimed that there is usually a spike in Georgia voter registrations just before the deadline. Their request to extend the registration period was rejected by a federal judge.
Despite this, early voting records have been broken by large margins.
According to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, 2.9 million people, or 40% of the electorate, had already voted by October 28.
In western counties of North Carolina, the areas hit worst by the hurricane, some of the early voting sites were unable to open.
New venues were chosen and applications for mail-in ballots were extended. Voters set a statewide record for the first day of voting, with more than 350,000 ballots cast, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections.
Nearly a week later, more than 1.3 million early in-person and mailed ballots had been cast.
How did the candidates respond?
Harris was quick to make public appearances in affected areas, visiting Georgia and North Carolina to pledge support.
Biden made a similar visit and confirmed a federal commitment to pay for debris removal and emergency measures for six months in North Carolina and for three months in Georgia.
The money was to address the impacts of landslides and flooding and cover costs of first responders, search and rescue teams, shelters and mass feeding.
During a visit to Valdosta, Georgia, Trump said he’d brought “truckloads” of supplies to Georgia, such as oil, water and equipment, and that he partnered with an evangelical Christian relief organisation to deliver them.
He also used his visit to spread claims about the Democrat response to the hurricane, accusing Biden of “sleeping” and not responding to calls from Georgia’s Republican governor Brian Kemp.
He also claimed, without evidence, that the administration and North Carolina’s Democratic governor were “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas”.
Democrats in congress accused Trump of weakening the Federal Emergency Managements Agency by transferring $155 million (£119 million) from its budget to fund the return of migrants to Mexico during his time in office.
Has disinformation and misinformation made a difference?
After Hurricane Helene, conspiracy theories quickly spread, including the accusation by Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Green that the Democrats “can control the weather”.
In response to the accusation, Biden said in a national address: “It’s beyond ridiculous. It’s gotta stop.”
The issue of man-made climate change is contentious in the United States and a link the Republican’s have avoided.
The Democrats have discussed it, with Biden saying: “Nobody can deny the impact of the climate crisis any more … They must be brain dead if they do.”
Elon Musk, who owns social media platform X and is publicly backing Trump, also used the hurricane to push disinformation.
He claimed that the disaster relief agency, FEMA, was “actively blocking” aid to people in need, including unfounded claims that money was being spent on helping migrants instead of hurricane support.
But has any of it impacted how people vote?
As with all election results, it will be hard to tell what swayed people to vote for whom.
Pollsters will struggle to interview voters, and the largescale destruction of infrastructure such as phone masts will make this even harder.
Many polls, especially in North Carolina, have the race neck and neck.
These states, which might be decisive for the election, remain an unknown until the votes are counted but the large-scale destruction caused by Hurricane Helene did give voters a chance to see how their potential leaders might respond to future disasters.
Want an expert briefing on US politics and the presidential race? Listen to our latest podcast Talking Politics USA